3. mars 2026
Market trends for stainless steel
Welcome to the latest market insights from Damstahl, where we delve into the dynamic world of stainless-steel trends. You’ll get a closer look at current market developments and updates on price trends, CBAM, Safeguards, energy and transportation situations, as well as the availability of different product groups.
Market trends
The year 2026 started off well for our industry, with good demands and a clear tendency for increasing prices. After three years of slow demands and prices under severe pressure the tables finally turn. On European level there are different indicators that can be visited to underline this trend i.e. the German ifo-index that shows a clear trend into much better capacity-usage in the industry reporting a level of 83,6% in average.
In the following Market Trends, we will give you a deeper insight into raw materials, news on products and transport, as well as some guidance in terms of CBAM and new Safeguard regulations to be introduced.
Raw materials
Nickel (LME 3 month)
In our latest Market Trends report for Autumn 2025, we quoted a nickel price of 14,600 USD. Since then, the market has moved significantly. Over the New Year period, nickel prices surged sharply, briefly exceeding 18,500 USD, and have now settled at a more stable level of around 17,000 USD.
The reasons for this can’t really be mentioned: Yes, there are still talks around the cutting of mining-licenses in Indonesia for 2026, but at the same time the official stocks at the LME are further increasing and show new record numbers.
We expect the prices to remain stable around the benchmark of 17.000 $ and thereby also stabilize the alloy-surcharge development.
Chromium
Chromium hasn’t been moving a lot since we have published our latest Market Trends. Back then we were reporting 1,00 $/lb and the price today shows the same level, after some minor changes in the last weeks.
We’re also not expecting any further price-developments in the short-term and will keep you updated in our next Market Trends in spring..
Ferromolybdenum
For Molybdenum we have seen very stable prices throughout 2025 and this raw-material keeps having a good momentum. Today reporting prices of approx. 71.500 $ per tonne shows an increase of 19,00% from our last Market Trends and will continue to push alloy-surcharges in molybdenum-grades further up, affecting prices for i.e. 1.4404 and 1.4571.
Aluminium
The record high prices for aluminum are driven by several factors. The biggest driver remains the desire to invest in precious metals. Demand on raw aluminium is strong, driven by electric vehicles and energy infrastructure, especially in China, where Electrical Vehicle production continues to grow significantly.
Supply is tight globally as China maintains its 45 million tons capacity (Due to a limit on carbon from aluminium production) cap and operates close to full capacity.Western smelters are hampered by high energy prices and limited power supply, further reducing global primary capacity.
LME inventories are significantly lower than last year, underscoring physical market tightness.
Copper
Copper prices reached record levels in January 2026 at around USD 14,500/t, but have fallen to approximately USD 12,700/t by mid‑February due to rising global inventories (over 1 million tons) and lower Chinese activity ahead of the Chinese New Year.
The market remains structurally tight, driven by strong demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and power grids, which makes copper a critical material in the energy transition.
At the same time, mine supply has been heavily affected by strikes, logistical issues, and declining ore grades, which is expected to create a global deficit of around 330,000 tons in 2026.
The United States has also built up large copper inventories due to expected import tariffs, distorting global supply signals and increasing price volatility.
Energy costs
The price of natural gas in Q4, at the start of the winter season, showed a stable to slightly declining trend, reaching a low of €26–28/MWh in December. This can, among other things, be attributed to the EU entering the heating season with well-stocked inventories, supported by stable supplies from the United States as well as mild weather combined with high wind power generation.
A prolonged colder period in Northern and Central Europe in January and February 2026 temporarily led to increased demand and thus higher prices, which briefly reached a level of €32 - 33/MWh. However, expectations of milder weather have stabilized prices, and no supply issues are anticipated for the remainder of the winter, even with lower storage levels.
Freight situation
Transport activity overall remains subdued and is expected to stay that way through the end of Q1. A number of carriers have resumed transiting the Suez Canal, though only selectively so far - Northern Europe is still not fully included. Once operations are fully restored, we anticipate a moderate and temporary increase in freight rates; however, the gradual ramp‑up of services and the currently soft market environment should help prevent any overheating. At the same time, Chinese New Year is dampening production and logistics.
Geopolitical situation: In the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on commercial vessels near the Bab-el-Mandeb strait have repeatedly occurred since early February. Many carriers are proactively rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, with noticeable effects on transit times, storage costs, and rates. In the Persian Gulf, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following US‑Israeli strikes at the end of February; several vessels were hit, and more than 170 container ships were at times blocked or forced to divert. Maritime security is at its most critical point in years, with direct consequences for container and commodity flows. Overall, this is increasing freight cost volatility, extending lead times, and amplifying uncertainty - an environment in which inventory planning, pricing strategy, and procurement require even more careful balancing.
Customs
The full transition to DMS Import and the shutdown of the current import system appear likely to be completed by the end of February 2026, even though many challenges remain.
The situation at the customs clearance points is therefore expected to remain unchanged, including longer waiting times and queues - especially during peak periods, where processing times increase. This is due to the ongoing implementation, testing activities, and the continued operational issues that have also affected DMS Export.
In addition, the EU is introducing a temporary import duty on small consignments under EUR 150. The scheme takes effect on 1 July 2026 and imposes a fixed duty of approximately EUR 3 per product in parcels valued below EUR 150.
This temporary solution will apply until 2028, when the EU expects to introduce standard tariff duties on all imported goods.
Stainless Scrap
Stainless steel scrap prices experienced a “soft landing” toward the end of 2025 and reached a level of around €1.00/kg at the end of December.
The beginning of 2026 has seen rising prices, which can partly be attributed to a lower seasonally driven supply of stainless steel scrap, combined with steel mills replenishing their inventories after the turn of the year.
Furthermore, the swift in buying behaviour from Asian to European mills and thereby increased demand for stainless steel scrap has driven up the price app. 15%, a trend expected to continue.
CBAM
Companies should prepare for rising cost exposure under the CBAM framework, as every import from 1 January 2026 generates a carbon liability tied to the EU ETS price, currently hovering around €70–90 per tonne of CO₂. Importers heavily depend on their non‑EU suppliers for accurate and production‑specific emissions data; whenever this data is missing or incomplete, EU default values must be used—values that intentionally include a surcharge (10% in 2026, increasing to 30% by 2028) and can overstate real emissions by 30–50%.
This means customers should stay alert: both carbon costs and the validity of the underlying data remain uncertain, and inadequate supplier transparency will translate directly into higher prices. As a consequence, we are seeing a massive swift in sourcing trend from Asia to Europe.
Safeguards
In our last Market Trends, we have informed that from 1 July 2026, the EU will replace the current safeguard with a new tariff system. The draft regulation significantly reduces tariff‑free import quotas and doubles the out‑of‑quota duty from 25% to 50%, meaning import costs will increase substantially. At the same time, the new regulation introduces a mandatory ‘Melt and Pour’ requirement, obliging importers to prove where the steel was originally produced - a major shift that adds complexity and may challenge suppliers who lack reliable traceability systems.
Despite these structural changes, the real cost impact remains uncertain: quota allocation will continue to be adjusted quarterly, unused volumes can shift between quarters, and final quota levels still depend on EU Council and Parliament approvals in early 2026. As a result, customers should be prepared for rising import‑related costs while navigating a high degree of uncertainty regarding quota availability, supplier compliance with ‘Melt and Pour’ rules, and the overall predictability of supply flows after July 2026.
Product news
Seamless Tubes
The uncertainty related to the CBAM, and tariffs regulations remains unchanged and has an impact on the seamless tubes-market in general. Meanwhile, new and less‑established suppliers, particularly from Asia, continue entering the seamless tube market, increasing competitive pressure at a time when documentation and traceability requirements (including the new “melt and pour” rule for all steel imports) are becoming stricter.
Early risk mitigation is essential. The combination of CBAM costs and much stricter import controls under the 2026 new tariff regime will significantly reduce the competitiveness of imported seamless tubes. This shifts market dynamics: European sourcing - previously dismissed as too expensive - may regain strategic relevance as customers prioritize security of supply, quality, predictable lead times, and compliance assurance. By mid‑2026, these regulatory shifts are expected to reshape the stainless seamless tube market more than in any other steel segment.
Welded Tubes
In recent weeks, the European market for welded tubes has shown a clear upward price trend. The increase is primarily driven by the rising financial impact of CBAM. High default emission values are significantly increasing the calculated carbon exposure to imports, leading to substantial CBAM surcharges on non-EU material. As a result, imported welded tubes are becoming less competitive, and European mills are gaining pricing leverage. The market adjustment is therefore less demand-driven and more structurally influenced by regulatory cost components.
Bars
After a prolonged period of weak demand, price pressure from Asia and low capacity utilization, European Long Product mills are now facing a more balanced market situation. This is supported by trade measures such as CBAM and the outlook for the replacement of the current Safeguard measures as of 1 July 2026.
Mills with a strong specialty portfolio, a green profile, and technical service capabilities are expected to be better positioned than mills that are primarily driven by undifferentiated commodity products.
The increased order intake toward the end of Q4 and at the beginning of 2026 has led to longer lead times, which raises expectations that mills will introduce higher base prices no later than by the end of Q1 2026.
Fittings & Flanges
For fittings and flanges, particularly from China, prices have also increased recently. Like welded tubes, CBAM exposure and high default values are contributing to higher offer levels for exports to Europe. Despite this upward movement, the overall global demand situation does not currently suggest strong fundamental support for sustained price increases.
The short-term outlook therefore remains difficult to predict. On one side, CBAM-related cost pressure is structurally supporting higher import price levels in Europe. On the other side, weak Chinese domestic demand and seasonal slowdowns reduce upward momentum. Greater clarity is expected once Chinese New Year concludes and regular trading activity resumes.
Overall, the market dynamic is currently more regulatory-driven than demand-driven, with CBAM playing a central role in shaping pricing structures for both welded tubes and fittings & flanges.
Sheets & plates
The year started as expected, with increasing prices in January and February and clear expectations of further increases in the early months of spring.
The price development is driven by a combination of reduced mill capacities - and consequently longer lead times from the mills - rising raw material prices for nickel, scrap, and molybdenum, and reduced-price pressure from Asian imports due to the continued widespread uncertainty surrounding costs for importing.
Although demand in Europe remains relatively flat, particularly in the largest stainless steel markets such as Germany and Italy, the current capacity utilization and higher raw material prices are resulting in rising prices in the coming months.
At present, we are seeing price increases of approximately 8–10% (depending on product and specification) from the end of 2025 through to the end of Q1 2026, this trend will continue during Q2 as most mills are now booking capacity for May and June.
Conclusion
The start of 2026 confirms a clear shift in market sentiment across the stainless steel value chain. After several years of suppressed demand and heavy price pressure, most segments now show stabilizing or rising price levels, supported by firmer raw‑material markets, improving mill order books, and gradually recovering industrial activity in Europe. Nickel, molybdenum and stainless scrap continue to trend upward, reinforcing higher alloy surcharges, while aluminum and copper remain tight due to supply constraints and investment‑driven volatility.
At the same time, the regulatory environment has become a defining market driver. CBAM already imposes additional cost exposure on all imports, with financial obligations tied to the EU ETS price and persistent uncertainty around data quality and verification. Parallel to this, the upcoming replacement of the safeguard regime effective 1 July 2026 introduces significantly stricter import controls, reduced quota volumes, higher out‑of‑quota duties, and new “melt and pour” traceability requirements. Together, these measures are reshaping competitive dynamics across all product groups.
Products most dependent on imports, such as seamless tubes, are seeing the strongest impact. Rising compliance costs, limited quota visibility, and the influx of new but less‑established low quality suppliers are increasing both market complexity and supply risk. As a result, European sourcing, once considered economically unattractive, is regaining relevance as customers prioritize security of supply, regulatory compliance, and predictable logistics.
Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Supply and demand are gradually rebalancing, lead times are extending, and price momentum across sheets, plates, bars, tubes and fittings points toward a more robust market environment heading into spring. However, companies should continue to prepare for a more regulated, cost‑sensitive, and risk‑aware landscape in 2026, where strategic sourcing decisions and early mitigation efforts will be essential for maintaining competitiveness.
Want to know more?
Palle Thomassen
Purchasing Director, Nordic
path@damstahl.com
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